Episode 11, So Long Stephenie

In an episode full of plotting and scheming Stephenie is voted off at Tribal Council in a landslide. The Reward Challenge was a Survivor Auction (done blind) for food and letters from home. Ian won Immunity.

After the recap of last episode, Stephenie says it would have just been wrong to keep Janu when she didn't really want to stay. Stephenie also says that she doesn't know who to trust. They all try and make her feel welcomed. Tom jokingly gives her the Immunity necklace. In private Gregg tells us that they should have taken her out the first chance they had and Tom tells us that she has great instincts and is really working hard to stay longer. Jennifer says that she would be willing to go against Gregg for a Girl Power alliance.

Reward Challenge
Competition: blind auction
Reward: various food items and letters from home

Each Survivor was given 500 US Dollars (the official currency on Palau) of real money for the auction.

First covered item was won by Jennifer for $120. She won an ice cream sundae.

Second covered item was won by Stephenie and Caryn for $200 (split evenly between them). Jeff Probst offers them a trade - both items unseen. They accepted the trade and won a double cheese burger with fries and a soda pop. They had originally bid on cheese and crackers.

Third item: Ian and Gregg won a plate of spaghetti for $300 (Gregg threw in $20 for a single bite). They too were offered a trade but turned it down. It turned out to be a bunch of live crabs. As Ian collects his prize Jeff Probst comments that he reeks.

Fourth item: Jeff Probst said that the first $40 wins a beer and Ian quickly won it.

Fifth item: Letters from Home. After tree mail Tom suspected letters might be offered so he was holding out for them. He won his letter for $220. Jeff Probst then said that anyone else could buy their letters for the same amount. Caryn and Stephenie quickly took him up on the offer.

That ended the auction. Jennifer said "No cheese and crackers?" (She's pretty vacant and I don't care.)

I think some items weren't shown. Seven people with $500 each is $3500. The total value of items shown was $1,260.

Ian declares that it is bath day and goes in the ocean with some of their soap and shampoo. Gregg helps him wash his back. Tom talks with Caryn. He tells us in confidence that he's trying to bring her into his alliance.


Immunity Challenge
Competition: tile toss

Each Survivor has five tiles in a horizontal frame that sits about two feet off the ground and maybe about fifteen feet way from them In turn they get a chance to throw a coconut to break one of their tiles. The first player with all five of his/her tiles broken win Immunity. If they break the tile of another competitor it scores for the other player.

Ian wins Immunity when Tom accidently knocks out Ian's fifth tile. (I don't think Tom did it intentionally. He wasn't very good at this at all.) Stephenie who really needed this was horrible. She finished with just two tiles broken. Most of the others had three tiles broken.

Now the scheming really heats up.
Katie talks to Caryn about a Girl Power alliance to vote out Tom. Caryn goes to Tom and tells him about it. Tom says "you must be sure of our alliance" and she says "huh, I'm telling you because I told you I would tell you things." (Man, she's bad at this game. Tom has himself a pawn.) Tom tells Ian about the Girl Power thing. Ian tells Katie that Caryn is talking about a women's alliance. Katie tells us in private that there will be no Girl Power alliance because Caryn "sucks." Gregg just wants Stephenie gone.


Koror at Tribal Council
The Jury watches: Coby, Janu
(paraphrased)
Probst: Ian has paranoia set in yet?
Ian: A little but we're a solid group.
Probst: Stephenie what was the tribe's reaction to last week's Tribal Council (where Janu quit)?
Stephenie: It wasn't too uncomfortable. They made me feel welcomed.
Probst: But you are still a bit of an outsider in their happy family.
Stephenie: Yes, it is tough.
Probst: Caryn when did the game intensify?
Caryn: After last Tribal Council. (She's pretty clueless. I'd say it's been intense for longer than that.)
Probst: Would you be surprised it you were voted off tonight?
Caryn: No. (At least she's not totally stupid.)
Probst: Tom you've been the leader and haven't held back. Was that a conscious decision?
Tom: No, it just happened that way. We needed to win competitions (against Ulong) so I just did my best. I hope they don't hold that against me. (He was sincere but they usually do hold it against the strong player.)

Time to vote. As she is voting Katie says "it's nothing personal, I'm just voting with the rest of the tribe."

Caryn gets 1 vote and Stephenie 4 (that's enough).


Alliances
I still think that Tom wins this thing. Caryn just takes the place of Stephenie. Which makes it even easier for Tom. Now his only real threat is Ian. Tom, Ian, Katie and Caryn should just vote Gregg and Jennifer off now.

Heroes and Villains
Caryn does indeed suck. A Girl Power alliance would have given her a real shot at the million dollars (and kept my Stephenie in the game longer). Stephenie would be the first target of the final female four leaving Caryn with Katie and Jennifer. All three would be equally undeserving of winning.

Official Episode Title: I'll Show You How Threatening I Am

Won Reward: everyone won something at the auction
(food and letters from home)

Immunity: Ian

Voted Off: Stephenie
(4 votes Stephenie, 1 vote Caryn)

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Survivor Fantasy: My Picks

Tom, first question at Tribal Council
I'm still waiting for Jeff Probst to grill him. He's gotten a free pass so far.

points last week: 35

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Ian, first question at Tribal Council
He's often used for an objective view of what's happened, maybe he'll start off the Tribal Council.

points last week: 0

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Katie, takes a nap
Well, "takes a nap" is more likely than "gets naked." She doesn't seem to get interviewed that often.

points last week: 8

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Stephenie, first interviewed
After last week's narrow escape she's a likely candidate for first interview.

points last week: 10

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Tonight's Episode
I'll Show You How Threatening I Am, Episode #1011.
Certain tribe members work to form a secret alliance; one castaway follows advice and makes improvements to personal hygiene; three contestants devise strategies to survive the upcoming Tribal Council.

Some Survivors entertain the idea of forming a secret alliance and persuade a tribemate to join their pact.

A Survivor heeds some advice and makes personal hygiene improvements, delighting the tribe.

As the game nears its conclusion, three castaways formulate individual strategies for surviving the upcoming Tribal Council.

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Survivor Palau Prediction: Tom Wins!

Before we know it Survivor Palau will be airing its two hour finale. The final show usually features the last four Survivors and there are seven of them now so we have only three regular shows left. I figured that this would be a good time to take a look at the situation.

The Final Seven:

Stephenie
Young, attractive, smart and athletic, a Survivor quadruple threat.
Close to: Tom, Ian and Katie

The lone Survivor from the Ulong tribe. She's very likable and everyone knows it. She has a big target on her back.


Gregg
Young, strong and intelligent.
In tight with: Jennifer

Has played a good game so far. The others should want him gone as soon as possible.


Jennifer
Young and attractive. Not so sure how smart she is.
In tight with: Gregg

She hasn't gotten much air time. Either it's one of the greatest Under the Radar performances on Survivor or she's a lousy player. I think it's the latter.


Caryn
Older and annoying.
In tight with: no one really, although I'd say she sides with Gregg and Jennifer.

Someone may want to be in the final two with her because she has been annoying. This is sometimes referred to as the Johnny Fairplay strategy, although I don't think she is doing it on intentionally.


Ian
Tall, smart and athletic despite looking lanky.
In tight with: Tom and Katie

A real threat, he's been letting others take the spotlight. Someone must want him gone.


Katie
Young, pretty and smart. She has also annoyed a few people.
In tight with: Ian and Tom

She has had heated arguments with a few people, like Caryn and Janu.


Tom
Older but strong and athletic. The clear tribal chief.
In tight with: Ian and Katie

He's won a lot of challenges and he seems to be a good judge of people. Why he hasn't been a target yet is a bit of a mystery to me.


My Prediction
Tom, Katie, Ian and Stephenie will be in the final four, at least that will be the plan. The next three to go are Gregg, Caryn and Jennifer; in that order if they're smart. Then it really becomes a matter of who wins Immunity, but I'd say Stephenie gets voted off unless she wins Immunity. That would put Katie in the final two because Tom and Ian are smart players and would want to be in the final two with her instead of each other. Tom has won a lot more challenges than Ian so he has the edge there. Also Katie is closer with Tom than Ian. Either Ian or Tom beats out Katie to win it all. All this points to . . .

. . . Tom winning Survivor Palau and one million dollars.

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Survivor Live: Janu

Survivor Live, the Internet Talk Show
Guest: Janu
Hosts: Dalton Ross (Entertainment Weekly) and
Jenna Morasca, sole survivor Survivor Amazon

Janu said she quit because it was the best thing for her to do. Her body just couldn't take it anymore. She lost 12 pounds and she was "sick of being sick."

Going to Tribal Council she thought she was going to be voted off. She quit also because she didn't want to be a pawn; it wasn't about saving Stephenie. Janu doesn't believe Jeff Probst's questions affected her decision to quit. Although she did say he is very perceptive.

Being exiled really satisfied her. She wasn't scared and it was good to be alone.

Janu on the Survivors
Stephenie's emotion at Tribal Council was real. Coby was her rock and he didn't act like the "bitch queen" that much. He played well and is a colorful person. Tom is playing the best game so far. Janu doesn't hate Katie but she did say Katie has "no balls" for not confronting her with problems instead of talking behind her back. Katie is a "unique individual" and they don't see eye to eye on things. A Girl Power alliance won't happen. Jennifer is too close with Gregg and Katie is too close with Tom. Tom, Gregg and Jennifer were very understanding with regard to her being sick and consoled her. She wants someone from Koror to win the million dollars.

Janu on the Challenges
The Reward Challenge was difficult because the pieces of the scaffold were awkward and heavy (about thirty pounds). Janu said she only lasted six minutes in the Immunity Challenge. She criticised Stephenie for not trying hard enough during the last two Immunity Challenges (the perch and water torture competitions). Janu thinks Stephenie should have won one of them.

My Take on Janu
I liked Janu early on in the show. In the first or second episode when she climbed up a tree to get a coconut I thought that she would be a tough competitor. Unfortunately she got sick around Day 3 and wasn't the same afterwards. As for her comments about Stephenie and Immunity, I don't take her thoughts too seriously. Janu was really out of the loop at that point. During the perch Immunity, Stephenie probably had a good idea that Coby was going. In the water-cage Immunity last week, I think she did try her best to win. Stephenie was last woman in the competition and shortly after she gave up Gregg and Ian surrendered giving Immunity to Tom. I think Jeff Probst's questions did affect Janu's decision to quit. However I don't think it was his intention to get her to give up. In past seasons he's asked similar questions at Tribal Council and no one's ever quit. Finally if she really wants someone from Koror to win it all, then why did she quit? If Stephenie was voted off instead of her (as was the plan) that would have left only Koror Survivors thus ensuring a Koror winner.

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