Survivor Palau Prediction: Tom Wins!

Before we know it Survivor Palau will be airing its two hour finale. The final show usually features the last four Survivors and there are seven of them now so we have only three regular shows left. I figured that this would be a good time to take a look at the situation.

The Final Seven:

Stephenie
Young, attractive, smart and athletic, a Survivor quadruple threat.
Close to: Tom, Ian and Katie

The lone Survivor from the Ulong tribe. She's very likable and everyone knows it. She has a big target on her back.


Gregg
Young, strong and intelligent.
In tight with: Jennifer

Has played a good game so far. The others should want him gone as soon as possible.


Jennifer
Young and attractive. Not so sure how smart she is.
In tight with: Gregg

She hasn't gotten much air time. Either it's one of the greatest Under the Radar performances on Survivor or she's a lousy player. I think it's the latter.


Caryn
Older and annoying.
In tight with: no one really, although I'd say she sides with Gregg and Jennifer.

Someone may want to be in the final two with her because she has been annoying. This is sometimes referred to as the Johnny Fairplay strategy, although I don't think she is doing it on intentionally.


Ian
Tall, smart and athletic despite looking lanky.
In tight with: Tom and Katie

A real threat, he's been letting others take the spotlight. Someone must want him gone.


Katie
Young, pretty and smart. She has also annoyed a few people.
In tight with: Ian and Tom

She has had heated arguments with a few people, like Caryn and Janu.


Tom
Older but strong and athletic. The clear tribal chief.
In tight with: Ian and Katie

He's won a lot of challenges and he seems to be a good judge of people. Why he hasn't been a target yet is a bit of a mystery to me.


My Prediction
Tom, Katie, Ian and Stephenie will be in the final four, at least that will be the plan. The next three to go are Gregg, Caryn and Jennifer; in that order if they're smart. Then it really becomes a matter of who wins Immunity, but I'd say Stephenie gets voted off unless she wins Immunity. That would put Katie in the final two because Tom and Ian are smart players and would want to be in the final two with her instead of each other. Tom has won a lot more challenges than Ian so he has the edge there. Also Katie is closer with Tom than Ian. Either Ian or Tom beats out Katie to win it all. All this points to . . .

. . . Tom winning Survivor Palau and one million dollars.

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